Statistics & Probability · Level 1 of 5
Probability
A numerical measure of uncertainty assigned to an event.
Probabilities lie between zero and one under a specified model.
Example
A model assigns a 0.2 chance to rain tomorrow.
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Audio transcript
Probability. A numerical measure of uncertainty assigned to an event. Probabilities lie between zero and one under a specified model. For example: A model assigns a 0.2 chance to rain tomorrow.
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A useful analogy
A calibrated share of uncertainty assigned to an event.
Why it matters
This helps you interpret numerical evidence without overstating what it establishes.
Technical detail
A probability measure is nonnegative, assigns one to the whole space, and is countably additive on disjoint events.
Common misconception
A probabilistic forecast is not a guarantee about one individual outcome.
Related concepts
Quick recall question
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